The long weekend’s rain now has a clearer timeline. Showers should start along the coast early Friday, Nov. 13, while inland areas get lighter rain through much of the day, and a wider band of rain is expected late Friday into Saturday morning, according to the National Weather Service office in San Diego, which forecasts for the U.S. side of the border. As of Thursday morning, its forecast graphics gave a chance of a quarter inch of rain (about 6 mm) on Friday morning and again from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, with highs much cooler than this week’s: upper 60s to low 70s °F (about 20–23 °C) along the coast and in the nearby valleys. The office’s alert list also includes a beach hazards statement, a wind advisory and a small craft advisory.
That’s a shift from Tuesday, when the forecast put the likeliest showers on Monday (our story); Thursday’s graphics cover Friday and Saturday, so check again before planning Sunday or Monday outdoors.
Tijuana’s risk map
The city says it’s preparing. At its sixth standing preparedness meeting, led by Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz, municipal civil protection reported 54 risk points in neighborhoods across Tijuana’s nine boroughs, and the city estimated that 12,663 people and 3,658 homes could be affected by flooding, runoff and mudflows, according to the city’s release as published Wednesday by La Jornada Baja California and Tijuana en LÃnea. The planning institute, Implan, has mapped the points, and young people from the Sembradores de Paz program will check the figures with a house-by-house census.
Public works (DOIUM) reported 94% progress on clearing the storm system, with 28 of the city’s 33 sand traps done, and the water utility, CESPT, said maintenance of 28 km of sewer lines was half done and work on earth berms and slope stabilization was 79% done. The city said it will keep watch on the spots most prone to flooding, including Puente Negro, Bulevar Padre Kino and the Cuauhtémoc Norte and Sur area, and will present a timeline of actions and possible detours.
What it means if you’re visiting
- Rain looks most widespread Friday night and Saturday morning: line up indoor plans (our rainy-day guide) and allow extra time on the roads.
- In heavy rain, stay away from the flood-prone spots above, and don’t drive or walk through flooded streets or arroyos.
- It’s a holiday weekend in Mexico, and last Sunday San Ysidro’s car lanes reached four hours (our story). Check the waits before you head back; our alert kit has the links.
- In an emergency in Tijuana, call 911.
More on El Niño in our emergency-declaration story, and more plans on the calendar.
Sources and review
Reviewed · 2026-11-12. Original announcement · 2026-11-12.
- National Weather Service, San Diego office — forecast graphics on the office's home page (map updated 6:16 a.m. PST, Nov. 12, 2026): showers moving into coastal areas early Friday, lighter inland rain for most of Friday; more widespread rain late Friday into Saturday morning; chance of 1/4 inch Friday morning and again Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon; highs much cooler, upper 60s to lower 70s in the coastal basin; beach hazards statement, wind advisory and small craft advisory listed
- Tijuana en LÃnea — Detectan 54 puntos de riesgo por lluvias en Tijuana: 54 critical points in the nine boroughs; 3,658 homes and 12,663 people exposed to flooding and mudflows; sixth standing preparedness meeting led by Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz; Sembradores de Paz house-by-house census (Raúl Romero); CESPT 50% of 28 km of sewer maintenance, 79% of protective works; DOIUM 94%, 28 of 33 sand traps; Puente Negro, Bulevar Padre Kino and Cuauhtémoc Norte and Sur watched; 6,500 posters, 9,000 flyers (Nov. 11, 2026)
- La Jornada Baja California — Detectan en Tijuana 54 puntos de riesgo ante el fenómeno de El Niño: city press release; Implan's georeferenced maps; 12,663 people and 3,658 homes exposed to flooding, runoff and mudflows; timeline of actions and possible alternate routes to be presented (Nov. 11, 2026)