The long weekend could turn wet. After highs near 82°F (28°C) on Tuesday and Wednesday and 79°F (26°C) on Thursday, the National Weather Service’s forecast for San Ysidro, right at the border, gives a 30% chance of showers on Friday, Nov. 13, more chances Friday night and early Saturday, a slight chance on Sunday and “showers likely” on Monday, Nov. 16, Mexico’s Revolution Day holiday. Highs fall to the low 70s (21–22°C) over the weekend and about 68°F (20°C) on Monday, according to the forecast updated Tuesday morning.
The timing is still moving. In its Sunday discussion, the weather service’s San Diego office said computer models are “notoriously poor” at tracking this kind of storm, that cooler, cloudier weather was the one thing it was confident about for Friday and Saturday, and that the best odds of rain over San Diego County were on Sunday; Tuesday’s forecast puts the likeliest showers on Monday instead. On the U.S. side, the office also had a beach hazards statement through Tuesday night for strong rip currents on the San Diego County coast.
Tijuana is preparing for possible El Niño rains. On Monday, Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz led the city’s fifth El Niño preparedness meeting, where the state water utility, CESPT, described its protocol for before, during and after rains and the public works department reported progress cleaning sand traps, storm channels and drains, the city said. Separately, municipal civil protection has red-tagged 35 homes in Colonia 3 de Octubre because of an active landslide and asks residents to report cracks in sidewalks, walls or pipes to 911, Tijuana en Línea reported.
What it means if you’re visiting
- Midweek is warm and sunny. Pack a light jacket for a cooler, cloudier weekend, and a rain layer if you’re staying through Monday.
- It’s also the El Buen Fin shopping weekend, Nov. 13–17, with Monday off in Mexico; our week ahead has the plans.
- Forecasts this far out change, so check again on Thursday before you lock in outdoor plans.
- In an emergency, call 911. More on El Niño in our emergency-declaration story.
More plans are on the calendar, and our guides have rainy-day ideas.
Sources and review
Reviewed · 2026-11-10. Original announcement · 2026-11-10.
- National Weather Service — Point forecast for San Diego-San Ysidro, CA (32.55°N, 117.04°W): sunny, highs near 82°F Tue. and Wed., 79°F Thu.; Fri. 30% chance of showers, high near 74°F; showers possible Fri. night and Sat. morning; slight chance Sun.; showers likely Mon.; Coastal Flood Advisory until noon and Beach Hazards Statement until 10 p.m. Tue. (updated 5:48 a.m. PST, Nov. 10, 2026)
- National Weather Service San Diego — Area Forecast Discussion: cooling late in the week with precipitation chances over the weekend; models 'notoriously poor' at the track and timing of this kind of system; Sunday had the highest odds over San Diego County (60–70%) at the time; very strong rip currents on the San Diego County coast (issued 3:19 p.m. PST, Nov. 8, 2026)
- Ayuntamiento de Tijuana — Preside Ismael Burgueño Quinta Mesa Permanente de Preparación y Respuesta ante el fenómeno de El Niño: CESPT protocol before, during and after rains; IMPLAN risk files for all nine delegations; DOIUM cleaning sand traps, storm channels and drains (Nov. 9, 2026)
- Tijuana en Línea — Etiquetan en rojo 35 casas por deslizamiento en Tijuana: Colonia 3 de Octubre; Protección Civil Municipal asks residents to report cracks in sidewalks, walls or pipes to 911; quote from Sergio Pérez (Nov. 9, 2026)
- Bloomberg Línea — Buen Fin 2026 en México: Friday, Nov. 13, to Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2026; Monday, Nov. 16, is the mandatory rest day for Revolution Day (Sept. 2026)