### Economic Slowdown in Mexico and the US to Potentially End by March: Expert
Jorge Fonseca, an economist, has indicated that the current economic slowdown affecting both the United States and Mexico might come to a halt by March 2025. Fonseca notes that the deceleration, which began roughly two years ago in the US as a means of controlling inflation through reduced interest rates, has had significant repercussions for Mexico, its primary trade partner.
Fonseca explained that the objective in the United States is to aim for a “soft landing.” Historically, in the last eight instances of economic slowdown, six resulted in deep recessions while only two were relatively mild. The expert expressed low confidence in the likelihood of achieving a soft landing, yet he does not dismiss the possibility entirely.
The economic slowdown in the United States has directly impacted Mexico, as the US accounts for 80% of Mexico’s trade. Fonseca elaborated that raising interest rates leads to a withdrawal of money from circulation, causing a decline in demand. He anticipates that this economic downturn, be it a soft landing or another recession, will likely conclude by March.
Following this period, the exchange rate should start to stabilize. At present, the dollar is high, but post-recovery projections estimate the exchange rate to be around 18 or 19 Mexican pesos.
As the year approaches its final quarter, Fonseca advises cautious and conservative financial behavior, emphasizing the importance of budgeting expenses during this period.
### Secondary News:
#### Recalibration of GDP Predictions for Mexico
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has recently adjusted its GDP growth forecast for the country, citing external economic pressures primarily from its northern neighbor. With inflation rates slightly abating, Banxico projects a moderate recovery aligned with global trends by the second quarter of 2024. This aligns with Fonseca’s predictions of economic stabilization by March 2025.
#### Economic Policies in the US and Their Global Effects
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has maintained its stance on interest rates, opting for a cautious approach given the mixed signals from various economic indicators. Analysts are divided on whether this strategy will benefit emerging markets such as Mexico, which are heavily intertwined with the US economy. Financial experts are closely monitoring US consumer behavior and employment data to forecast potential ripple effects on global markets.
#### Local Business Adaptations in Tijuana Amid Economic Uncertainty
Businesses in Tijuana have been experiencing a fluctuating market, adapting to changing economic conditions. The restaurant industry, in particular, has seen closures and transitions due to decreased consumer spending. Local business leaders advocate for strategic investments and cost management to navigate the uncertain economic landscape.
In conclusion, both Mexico and the US are navigating challenging economic waters with hopes of stabilization by early next year. Careful monitoring of economic policies and market behaviors will be crucial as both nations aim for recovery.
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