**SHCP Presents 2025 Economic Package with 3.2% Deficit**
On November 15, 2024, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, head of the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), officially presented the Economic Package for the 2025 Fiscal Year to the Chamber of Deputies of Mexico. This marks the first economic plan of the current national administration led by Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. The package, consisting of the Revenue Law, Rights Law, Fiscal Miscellany, and the Expenditure Budget of the Federation, is set to be reviewed by the Joint Budgets and Public Accounts Commission and the Public Credit and Finance Commission.
Ramírez de la O indicated that this initiative anticipates revenues of 8.05 trillion pesos, primarily sourced from tax collection, against expenditures of 9.2 trillion pesos. Notably, tax revenues are projected to reach 5.3 trillion pesos, a 2.6% real increase from 2024, potentially marking a historical peak of 14.6% of GDP from tax revenues. As a result, the public deficit is expected to decrease from 5.9% of the GDP in 2024 to 3.9% in the upcoming year.
Ramírez highlighted that the package aims to lay the groundwork for a new government that aspires for economic growth accompanied by social justice, a sentiment echoed by the previous administration. Despite these ambitions, Mexico is anticipating a slower economic growth rate of 2-3% in 2025 compared to 2024’s estimate of 2.5-3.5%.
Furthermore, the Economic Package suggests an emphasis on public investment projects aimed at enhancing national connectivity through infrastructure developments like the expansion of the railway system. Prioritization of social programs continues to be a focus, promising improvements in living standards across Mexico.
President Sheinbaum confirmed that while the Economic Package is strong and incorporates significant shifts in budget allocation, these adjustments will reduce the deficit without undermining federal operations. The President did not rule out the possibility of pursuing a fiscal reform in 2025 to enhance tax revenue, although it seems that the present measures concentrate on improving tax collection efficiency.
In related developments, a recent assessment from Moody’s Rating decided a shift from a “stable” to a “negative” credit outlook for Mexico due to perceived weakening institutional frameworks. Moody’s concerns were directed at recent judiciary reforms that might affect economic strength and fiscal stability.
However, President Sheinbaum critiqued Moody’s assessment, attributing it to outdated evaluation models, while reaffirming the nation’s commitment to social programs and economic growth.
*Secondary Article: Economic Context and Outlook for Mexico in 2025*
The new Economic Package arrives amid a broader context where global inflation shows signs of easing, offering some relief after tumultuous economic periods. Mexico stands as an active participant in global markets, striving to balance domestic priorities with foreign investment opportunities.
Experts suggest that Mexico’s focus on infrastructural investment could serve as a catalyst for regional economic strength, aiding internal trade and connectivity. The government’s commitment to maintaining fiscal stability while supporting social welfare is seen as crucial for navigating upcoming economic challenges.
While some economic analysts express caution regarding Moody’s rating adjustment, others argue that Mexico’s potential fiscal reforms could unleash much-needed economic vitality. As Mexico enters 2025, global economic conditions and internal policy decisions will play pivotal roles in shaping its economic landscape.