**Judicial Reform Set to Impact GDP Growth, Economist Warns**
The proposed judicial reform is predicted to come at a high cost for the people, significantly impacting the nation’s economic growth from 2024 to 2027, according to former President of the Economists’ Association, Enrique Rovirosa Miramontes. It’s projected that the GDP in 2024 will hover between 1.3% and 1.5%, indicating an economic slowdown that the judicial reform will exacerbate, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Rovirosa Miramontes expressed concerns over the uncertainty stemming from a weakened legal framework, resulting from amendments to the Constitution and secondary laws, along with changes in the judicial process. He criticized federal and local legislators for approving the reform without fully assessing its economic ramifications. “It’s alarming how the future of younger generations is continuously compromised,” he noted, condemning the silence from key economic sectors. Delays due to a four-month strike by judiciary workers have already cost billions and threaten companies with cash flow issues if pending legal cases are not resolved.
The rushed approach to implementing the judicial reform will likely negatively affect the productivity of judiciary employees involved in the strike. Next year, the election of judges, magistrates, and ministers will bring individuals unfamiliar with judicial careers into key roles, further impacting judiciary productivity. The resulting uncertainty has already stalled domestic and foreign investment, compounded by an election process estimated to cost 13 billion pesos, according to the National Electoral Institute.
A constrained judiciary will pose challenges for Mexico in reviewing trade agreements like T-MEC with the U.S. and Canada, Rovirosa remarked.
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**Secondary Article: The Broader Economic Implications of Judicial Reforms on Global Trade**
As concerns rise over the domestic impact of recent judicial reforms, analysts warn of broader repercussions on international trade relations. With Mexico’s justice system potentially under strain, tensions may arise in trade negotiations and agreements, such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Experts caution that delays and complications in legal proceedings could sour business sentiments and increase scrutiny from international partners. This is particularly important in maintaining competitive standing within North America, where legal predictability and swift judicial processes are vital for cross-border commercial activities.
An insight from recent global assessments suggests that similar reforms in other countries have led to decreased investor confidence and prolonged diplomatic negotiations. As a result, businesses globally are advised to closely monitor Mexico’s judicial developments, which are likely to reshape the landscape for foreign investments and trade over the coming years.
These concerns spotlight the necessity of dialogue and transparency in reform processes to mitigate economic fallout and ensure cohesive international trade relations.