**Judicial Reform to Impact GDP Growth, Predicts Economist**
The recent judicial reform is expected to have significant repercussions on Mexico’s economic growth, impacting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2024 and 2027, according to Enrique Rovirosa Miramontes, a former president of the College of Economists. He forecasts that GDP growth for 2024 will range between 1.3% and 1.5%, marking a slowdown that the judicial reform is likely to exacerbate, regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Rovirosa warns of the considerable uncertainty arising from a fragile rule of law resulting from changes to the Constitution and secondary laws, as well as challenges within the justice system. This situation, he states, is deeply concerning.
Speaking critically, Rovirosa highlighted that federal and local legislators approved the judicial reform initiative without thoroughly examining its negative economic impacts. He finds it alarming how future generations’ prospects seem compromised, accompanied by a worrying silence from productive sectors.
The citizenry and businesses are already bearing costs in the billions due to a four-month work stoppage by judicial workers, a situation that could force business closures if unresolved cases affect their cash flow. The rushed nature of implementing the judicial reform could negatively affect the productivity of these workers, worsening the situation further.
The upcoming elections for judges, magistrates, and ministers in 2025, under this new system, will introduce a learning curve, delaying productivity even more. Meanwhile, private national and foreign investments remain stalled due to the current uncertainty, which, coupled with the elections’ costs, could strain the budget with expenses nearing 13 billion pesos according to estimates by the National Electoral Institute (INE).
A restrained and weakened judiciary could complicate the review process of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC), potentially challenging Mexico’s trade relations with the U.S. and Canada, Rovirosa observed.
—
**Secondary Article: Insights from the Global Reaction to Mexico’s Judicial Reform**
Globally, the repercussions of Mexico’s judicial reform have raised considerable attention. Investors and international observers express heightened concerns regarding the stability and predictability of Mexico’s legal framework. Many international businesses are re-evaluating potential investments due to perceived risks, exacerbated by ongoing political turmoil.
Some experts highlight that the reform could challenge Mexico’s democratic institutions, further complicating international trade agreements and negotiations. Economists worldwide are closely observing Mexico’s judicial evolution, drawing parallels to other countries where legal instability has impacted economic health.
Locally, citizens remain divided with some expressing confidence that the reform could lead to a more transparent and equitable justice system in the long-term. Critics, however, warn of potential overreach and its impact on institutional independence.
This discourse reflects a pivotal moment for Mexico on the world stage, suggesting that the outcomes of this reform could set precedents for judicial systems in similar emerging economies.