**INE Awards Majority to “4T” in San Lázaro, Reducing Opposition Seats**
In a significant turn of events on August 23, 2024, the General Council of the National Electoral Institute (INE) approved a project by the Commission of Prerogatives and Political Parties. This decision enables the legislative groups of Morena, the Labor Party (PT), and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) to hold 72.8 percent of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, corresponding to 364 seats. The basis for this allocation is the fifth clause of Article 54 of the Constitution, which addresses overrepresentation via coalition, not individual parties, as reformed on September 3, 1993.
The article stipulates that no political party can hold a number of deputies exceeding its national vote tally by more than eight percentage points, except when a party wins a higher percentage of seats through uninominal districts. With this majority, dubbed the “fourth transformation” or “4T”, the coalition can implement constitutional reforms, including changes to the Federal Judicial Power (PJF).
INE councilors Guadalupe Taddei Zavala, Norma Irene De La Cruz Magaña, Uuc-Kib Espadas Ancona, Arturo Castillo Loza, Carla Astrid Humphrey Jordan, and Rita Bell López Vences voted in favor of the 364 deputations. Beatriz Claudia Zavala Pérez, Jaime Rivera Velázquez, and Dania Paola Ravel Cuevas approved 317 seats for Morena, PT, and PVEM instead. Jorge Montaño Ventura, José Martín Fernando Faz Mora, and Rita Bell López Vences had yet to vote at the time of writing.
The project was proposed by the Directorate of Prerogatives and Political Parties at the INE, basing their structure on several petitions and legal mandates to avoid party overrepresentation. According to the pre-project shared with the eleven electoral councilors, Morena would receive 75 plurinominal seats, adding to their 161 majority seats for a total of 236. PVEM and PT would gain 77 and 51 seats, respectively. In contrast, the National Action Party (PAN) would obtain 40 plurinominal seats, making their total 72.
With the Senate, “4T” is projected to have 83 legislators, needing just three more to achieve a qualified majority. This would facilitate various constitutional reforms. In terms of seat distribution, the PAN, PRI, and other opposition parties will share the remaining seats, handling a collective 135 federal deputies.
On August 23, 2024, councilor Zavala Pérez proposed allocating fewer plurinominal seats to “4T”, which would have left Morena, PVEM, and PT with 317 legislators—insufficient for a qualified majority. Zavala Pérez’s “compensatory constitutional” proposal would have recalibrated seat distribution to better reflect electoral strength proportionally.
**Secondary Article on Related Developments:**
**Morena’s Electoral Victory Sparks Varied Reactions and Future Implications**
Following INE’s announcement granting the majority to the “fourth transformation” coalition, reactions have been mixed among political analysts and opposition members. Concerns are rising about the long-term implications for Mexico’s democratic balance.
Political experts note that a qualified majority for the Morena-led coalition could usher in swift legislative changes, particularly in judiciary reforms and restructuring governmental checks and balances. Critics argue that such a concentration of power might undermine democratic institutions and dissenter voices.
Supporters of the “4T” movement argue that these legislative changes are vital for advancing their agenda, which focuses on comprehensive socio-economic reforms and combating corruption. However, international observers are watching closely, cautioning about potential risks of democratic backsliding.
As Mexico moves forward from the 2024 elections, the efficacy and integrity of the INE and its decisions will remain under scrutiny. Ensuring transparent and fair electoral processes will be crucial for the nation’s democratic future. The opposition, now with reduced seats, faces the challenge of consolidating its efforts to provide a balanced counterweight in the political landscape.
While uncertainty clouds the immediate future, the robust participation of over 60 million voters reflects a continued commitment to democratic engagement, highlighting the critical importance of civic involvement in shaping Mexico’s path forward.