## Latest Report on AMLO’s Tenure: 196,684 Homicides
With 196,684 homicides recorded as of August 28, 2024, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is projected to conclude his term with over 199,000 murder victims, just 33 days before his term ends. This reflects a monthly average of 2,600 violent murders, a grim milestone marking his tenure. Compared to former presidents, López Obrador has overseen 40% more homicides than Felipe Calderón and 20% more than Enrique Peña Nieto.
These staggering figures underscore the failure of López Obrador’s security policies. Key indicators include a 70% reduction in drug seizures over the first three years of his term and the deployment of the military in homicide-prone states, emblematic of a war-like strategy despite promises to end the crackdown on drug cartels.
The “Hugs, Not Bullets” mantra was undermined by his actions, such as the release and subsequent recapture of trafficker Ovidio Guzmán López, and the contentious extradition of Ismael “Mayo” Zambada to the U.S. It is worth noting that security chief Rosa Icela Rodríguez Velázquez has promoted optimistic narratives in her briefings, despite the stark statistics showing otherwise.
From 2018 to 2024, crime data illustrates a troubling increase in homicides and other violent crimes despite official reports suggesting minor reductions in specific years. For example, in 2018, the last year of Peña Nieto’s term, there were 34,662 homicides. This number increased during López Obrador’s first two years before showing a modest decline.
The consistent presence of violent crime highlights an ongoing crisis, with states like Sonora, Morelos, and Nuevo León becoming new hotspots. Conversely, supposedly safer states like Baja California Sur have experienced recent spikes in violence. Additionally, some traditionally violent states such as Sinaloa and Tamaulipas have reported fewer murders, though experts suggest these figures may be underreported.
Key trends indicate a growing issue with crime underreporting and classification. For instance, crimes under certain categories that affect personal liberty or involve disappearances have increased even as reported murders have momentarily declined.
### Secondary Article: Growing Concerns Over Crime Statistics and Cartel Influence in Mexico
Recent analyses have shown that Mexico’s security issues are compounded by inconsistent crime reporting. According to Francisco Rivas of the National Citizen Observatory for Security, Justice, and Legality, many categories of violent deaths are not properly classified or investigated, contributing to substantial underreporting.
An alarming trend shows that clandestine graves and unidentified violent deaths often are not scrutinized thoroughly, leading to unreliable homicide figures. For example, the current administration has found numerous clandestine graves, but the follow-up on these findings has been deficient, leading to potential thousands of unreported murders.
Implications of underreporting are significant. Some estimates suggest that the real number of homicides could be much higher than reported. For instance, ONC estimates suggest that underreporting in AMLO’s term could hide between 20,000 to 80,000 additional murders, potentially pushing the real tally as high as 275,000.
Furthermore, the influence and growth of cartel activity exacerbate these issues. Recent data presented by security experts indicates that cartels have expanded their influence, recruiting thousands of new members annually. This unchecked expansion places cartels among the largest employers in Mexico, indicating severe systemic failures in combating organized crime.
In light of these developments, ongoing scrutiny and recalibration of official statistics are essential to obtaining a realistic picture of Mexico’s security challenges and addressing the rampant impunity that fuels the cycle of violence and crime.
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