### What AMLO’s Administration Left for Baja California: Experts Weigh In
As the term of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador comes to a close, Baja California exhibits mixed results in various sectors. Significant strides have been made in reducing poverty and increasing the minimum wage, but security issues persist, and migration challenges remain pressing.
#### Economic and Public Works: Accomplishments and Challenges
At the beginning of López Obrador’s term, Baja California had a poverty rate of 23%, which decreased to 13.4% by 2022, according to the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (Coneval). Additionally, the percentage of the population with at least one social deficiency dropped from 57% to 51%.
One of the administration’s notable achievements is the increase in the minimum wage in the northern border area, which rose from 88.4 pesos per day in 2018 to 374.89 pesos per day in 2024. However, economist Jorge Fonseca points out that rising prices have offset these wage gains, with inflation remaining high since the pandemic.
While the reduction of the VAT to 8% was a key economic promise for the state, it was only partially realized through a decree, which did not provide a long-term solution. Large-scale public works, such as the elevated viaduct and Otay II border crossing, received over 14 billion pesos in federal investment. However, the construction sector argues that the need for more investment remains, with a significant infrastructure deficit in the state.
#### Security: An Unsustainable Strategy
Baja California recorded 95,348 criminal incidents in 2018, increasing to 113,864 by 2023, according to the State Citizen Security Secretariat. Between 2019 and 2023, there were 13,975 homicides, a sharp rise compared to 5,979 during most of Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration. The rise in disappearances is also concerning, with 17,306 reported cases up to 2022.
Security expert Vicente Sánchez Munguía notes that lethal crimes like homicide and extortion have increased and spread across the state. He emphasizes the need for a radical change in the strategy to combat violence and insecurity.
#### Migration: Insufficient Support
Migration flows continue to challenge Baja California. Migrant shelters, primarily managed by civil and religious organizations, have struggled with minimal federal support. Pat Murphy, Director of the Casa del Migrante in Tijuana, highlights the increasing risks migrants face from organized crime, which often demands payments for illegal crossings into the United States.
José Moreno Mena, President of the Coalition for Migrant Defense in Baja California, acknowledges federal efforts to establish shelters but criticizes the withdrawal of support for civil organizations. He calls for enhanced federal assistance to prepare for future migration phenomena and combat abuses against migrants.
### Supplementary News
#### Tijuana-San Diego Cross-Border Efforts
Recently, the mayors of Tijuana and San Diego met to discuss ongoing collaborations aimed at improving cross-border relations. Key areas of focus included ease of travel, public health coordination, and economic partnerships to enhance the quality of life for residents on both sides of the border.
#### Economic Outlook Under Claudia Sheinbaum
As Claudia Sheinbaum prepares to take office, the business sector has high expectations for her tenure, especially regarding nearshoring opportunities and legal certainty for investments. Roberto Vega Solís, President of COPARMEX Tijuana, emphasizes the need for stable macroeconomic conditions, control over inflation, and efforts to capitalize on the unique chance presented by nearshoring.
#### Environmental Concerns
Environmental groups in Baja California have raised alarms about increasing pollution levels and insufficient infrastructure to manage waste. They urge the incoming administration to prioritize sustainable practices and investments in green technologies to ensure long-term ecological health.
For the full story and continuous updates on Baja California and other regions, stay tuned to TJGringo.com.