## AMLO’s Final Report: 196,684 Executions
As of August 28, 2024, just over a month before the conclusion of his tenure, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has witnessed a staggering 196,684 intentional homicides. With an average of 2,600 violent murders monthly, projections indicate his administration may end with more than 199,000 murder victims.
When compared to his predecessors, AMLO’s term is marked by a 40% increase in homicides compared to Felipe Calderón Hinojosa—whose administration declared a war against drug cartels—and 20% more victims than Enrique Peña Nieto, who pushed for military involvement in confronting organized crime.
Data sourced from the National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (INEGI) and the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP) exposes the inefficacy of López Obrador’s conflicting security strategies. These include attempts to dismantle drug operations and the creation of the National Guard, alongside significant reductions in drug seizures and maintaining militarized public safety interventions.
Despite AMLO’s slogan, “Hugs, not bullets,” he faced a notable contradiction when releasing drug trafficker Ovidio Guzmán López during the “Culiacanazo” in 2019, only to recapture him in January 2023. Statistics show minor reductions in violent deaths, contradicting optimistic governmental discourse.
Between 2018 and 2023, violent deaths have shown only slight decreases after initial hikes in the first two years of AMLO’s presidency. In 2024 alone, there have already been 20,237 violent deaths in the first seven months. This year is projected to close with over 33,000 fatalities, comparable to previous years.
Additionally, other categories of crimes associated with missing persons and other violations against personal freedom have seen upsurges. From 2022 to 2024, Mexico experienced insignificant downward trends in reported deaths but corresponding rises in unsolved or unclassified crimes.
A geographic analysis indicates new hotspots of violence, including Sonora, Morelos, and Nuevo León, while historically violent states like Sinaloa and Tamaulipas report reduced numbers, raising concerns about underreporting or manipulation of statistics.
Voices from civil society groups, like the National Citizen Observatory for Safety, Justice, and Legality (ONC), highlight essential discrepancies in reported data, suggesting a potential undervaluation of victims, with estimates ranging from 20,000 to 80,000 unreported homicide cases.
Cases of missing individuals also present significant issues in data reliability. In late 2023 alone, the Mexican government removed over 10,000 names from the list of missing persons, raising concerns about the true extent of enforced disappearances.
Impunity remains a critical problem, with less than a fifth of homicide cases resulting in judicial consequences. This inefficiency emboldens criminal elements, which continue to expand unchecked. Recent data identifies 79 criminal groups operating under two dominant cartels, confirming the entrenched challenges facing Mexico’s security apparatus.
### Secondary Article: Increases in Violent Incidents in Baja California
In Baja California, the violence significantly marks an upward trajectory during 2024. Baja California Sur, previously considered relatively safer, faced increased violent crimes with over 30 assassinations reported in the first half of 2024, contrasting with fewer cases in prior years. Official data indicates a 42% rise in murders compared to the initial half of 2022.
Other states, including Chihuahua, Guerrero, and the State of Mexico, continue featuring prominently in murder statistics, reflecting ongoing struggles against entrenched criminal networks despite varying strategic approaches across different presidential administrations.
Recent evaluations show a 40% inter-administrative increase in unidentified violent deaths, often dismissed without thorough investigation, adding to a broader issue of unaccountable violence within the country.
Despite security promises and layered strategies, Mexico’s struggle with cartel violence and associated criminal activities remains one of the nation’s most pressing concerns, calling for renewed efforts and transparent reporting to address and mitigate these endemic issues effectively.