### “4T” on the Verge of Supermajority in Mexico’s Congress, According to INE Draft
**By Carlos Álvarez Acevedo | August 21, 2024**
The legislative groups of Morena, the Labor Party (PT), and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) are projected to hold 72.8% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, which translates to 364 legislators. This is according to a draft report delivered on August 20, 2024, by the Directorate of Prerogatives and Political Parties of the National Electoral Institute (INE) to the eleven members of the General Council of the independent constitutional body.
The document stipulates that for the 2023-2024 federal electoral period, the assignment procedure for proportional or plurinominal representation seats in San Lázaro will strictly adhere to regulations concerning overrepresentation by coalition rather than by individual political parties.
This arrangement would grant the self-styled “Fourth Transformation” a supermajority in the lower house, enabling the coalition to enact constitutional reforms, including those targeting the Federal Judiciary.
From an operational perspective, this procedural adherence compels the INE to observe both the legal requirements for assigning proportional representation seats and the constitutional limits on overrepresentation, thereby dismissing 69 separate petitions to curb the legislative majority of the “4T.”
According to the draft presented, Morena stands to gain the most, with 75 plurinominal seats adding to its 161 majority seats, bringing its total to 236. The PVEM and PT would receive 77 and 51 seats, respectively. In contrast, the National Action Party (PAN) would secure 40 plurinominal seats for a total of 72 deputies.
Other parties’ projected results include:
– Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI): 35 seats (both majority and proportional)
– Citizens’ Movement (MC): 27 seats
– Democratic Revolution Party (PRD): 1 seat
– 1 independent legislator
Collectively, the opposition will hold 135 federal deputies.
In the Senate, the coalition of “4T” parties is predicted to have 83 senators, three short of a supermajority. Morena is anticipated to secure 46 seats via majority and first minority standing, plus 14 proportional representation seats. PAN, PRI, PVEM, and PT will follow with various seat allocations, falling short of altering the legislative balance significantly.
The debate around these projections was amplified when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called on Mexico’s wealthiest individuals—Carlos Slim Helú, Germán Larrea Mota Velasco, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, Alejandro Baillères Gual, and María Asunción Aramburuzabala Larregui—to publicly express their views on the issue of overrepresentation.
The president argued that securing a legislative supermajority is crucial for battling corruption and strengthening the rule of law. However, he received mixed responses, including skepticism from some business leaders who raised concerns about the ethical and democratic implications of the potential overrepresentation.
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These stories illustrate a turbulent period for Mexico’s justice and political institutions, with potential reforms on the horizon and significant debates surrounding legislative representation and governance integrity.